AFC West Analysis, Preview and Predictions

AFC West Predictions and Odds

By WizardRaceandSports Staff Writer

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes, who is by far the 2021 NFL MVP favorite (+500), has not forgotten the Chiefs’ 31-9 loss at the hands of Tom Brady and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. Mahomes and company will try to avenge their touchdown-less performance in the Big Game in 2021. The Chiefs are the favorite to win Super Bowl LVI, as the franchise looks for its third Super Bowl championship and its second in three years.

In the league’s first 17-game season, the Chiefs’ win total is set at an NFL-best 12.5 wins and the Chiefs are -1000 to make the postseason while they are +600 to miss the playoffs. Betting the Chiefs against the spread will once again be difficult in 2021 after they posted a 7-9 record ATS last year. Mahomes seems to be all systems go after his February surgery to repair his left foot, so the Chiefs should be winning a lot of games again in 2021.

2021 Chiefs Draft Picks

Round 2, Pick 26 – LB Nick Bolton

Round 2, Pick 31 – OL Creed Humphrey

Round 4, Pick 39 – DE Joshua Kaindoh

Round 5, Pick 18 – TE Noah Gray

Round 5, Pick 37 – WR Cornell Powell

Round 6, Pick 42 – OL Trey Smith

Notable Other Players Added and Re-Signed by the Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon, RB

Tajae Sharpe, WR

Austin Blythe, C

Eric Fisher, OT

Mike Remmers, OT

Joe Thuney, G

Kyle Long, G

Notable Chiefs in New Places

Le’Veon Bell, RB – free agent

Damien Williams, RB – Chicago Bears

Sammy Watkins, WR – Baltimore Ravens

Austin Reiter, C – free agent

Bashaud Breeland, CB – Minnesota Vikings

Predictions for Notable Chiefs Players

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes will turn just 26 years old on September 17, and he has a chance at being the best player in NFL history. Tom Brady is not making it easy for Mahomes to reach G.O.A.T. status after the Buccaneers and their quarterback defeated Mahomes and the Chiefs to give the elder statesman his seventh Super Bowl. As we enter the 2021 season, Mahomes is the favorite in many categories. Here are his odds this year:

Offensive Player of the Year: +700
Passing Yards Leader: +340
Passing Touchdowns Leader: +330
Passing Yards Total: over/under 5,050.5 yards
Passing Touchdowns Total: over/under 37.5 touchdowns

In 2018, he surpassed 5,050.5 passing yards. In 2018 and 2020, he surpassed 37.5 passing touchdowns. If there is one player in the NFL who can hit the over for the above totals, it is Mahomes. If he is healthy, Mahomes — who was the best in the NFL in interception percentage (one percent) and passing yards per game (316) last year — should be firing on all cylinders for the league’s best passing offense in the 17-game season.

Running Back

While starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire may not be as competitive in the Offensive Player of the Year Award odds (+8000), the second-year back should be a force again in 2021. He ran for 803 yards and had a total of 1,100 yards from scrimmage last year. Although he had just five touchdowns, his 13-game performance was promising. Even though he is +5000 to lead the NFL in rushing, another season of 1,000 total yards should be in the works for the LSU product.

With Darrel Williams (285 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in 2020), newcomer Jerick McKinnon (572 yards and six touchdowns with the 49ers in 2020), and Darwin Thompson (162 yards and two touchdowns) backing up Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs should be fine with their rushing game, which will be secondary to the team’s tremendous passing attack. The loss of Le’Veon Bell should not affect much for this team.

Wide Receiver

It will be Tyreek Hill (+2500 to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award) and Mecole Hardman as the top two receivers in Kansas City with Sammy Watkins now in Baltimore. Hill is tied for fifth in the odds for the most receiving yards this season (+1100). We will have to see if Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, or rookie Cornell Powell can step up as the team’s third wide receiver. In the past, Mahomes has spread the ball to many receivers, but his favorite pass-catchers have remained Hill and Travis Kelce.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, who announced during the offseason that everyone in the football world had been pronouncing his name incorrectly, called 2020 a failure because of the Super Bowl loss. The league’s best tight end appears like he is trying to be even better in 2021. During Kelce’s three years with Mahomes, he has produced at least 97 receptions, 1,229 yards, and five touchdowns in each season. Kelce is +1300 to lead the NFL in receiving yards and +1000 to lead in receiving touchdowns. His over/under totals stand at 1,300.5 yards and 10 touchdowns, both of which are slightly on the high side. It may be difficult for him to surpass both of these numbers in 2021.

At Wizard Race and Sports, we have NFL picks every week just for you. Make sure you head to this link to see all the Week 1 picks.

Chiefs Predictions for the 2021 Season

2020 Regular Season Record: 14-2 (7-9 ATS); Lost in Super Bowl

The Chiefs finished the 2020 regular season as the NFL’s best team, and they almost became the first back-to-back champions since the New England Patriots in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Brady stood in the way of Kansas City’s championship aspirations in Super Bowl LV. However, the Chiefs, who had a top-10 defense in terms of points allowed last year, are mostly running it back. Andy Reid and company enter 2021 as the title favorites once again. Betting big against Kansas City is not advised.

Wizard Race and Sports also has your 2021 season win totals and best futures to bet, so make sure to subscribe as soon as possible to get the best weekly and season picks.

Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas finished second in the AFC West in 2020, but it was with just an 8-8 record. Derek Carr and the Raiders had a top-10 offense in terms of points scored — eighth in yards gained — but the team’s 30th-ranked defense was the culprit last year. The Raiders were very average last year, as they also went 8-8 against the spread. In the 17-game season, Las Vegas’ win total is set at just seven wins and the team is +2500 to win the AFC West. Only two teams (the Texans and Lions) have worse odds to win their respective divisions. Once again in 2021, the Raiders are expected to not have a strong defense, so it may be a struggle once again for Jon Gruden’s squad.

2021 Raiders Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick 17 – OT Alex Leatherwood

Round 2, Pick 11 – S Tre’von Moehrig

Round 3, Pick 16 – DE Malcolm Koonce

Round 3, Pick 17 – LB Divine Deablo

Round 4, Pick 38 – S Tyree Gillespie

Round 5, Pick 23 – CB Nate Hobbs

Round 7, Pick 2 – C Jimmy Morrissey

Notable Other Players Added and Re-Signed by the Raiders

Kenyan Drake, RB

Bo Scarbrough, RB

John Brown, WR

Willie Snead IV, WR

Nick Martin, C

Denzelle Good, G

Richie Incognito, G

Johnathan Hankins, DT

Quinton Jefferson, DT

Gerald McCoy, DT

Yannick Ngakoue, DE

Nicholas Morrow, LB

Rasul Douglas, CB

Casey Hayward Jr., CB

Notable Raiders in New Places

Devontae Booker, RB – New York Giants

Tyrell Williams, WR – Detroit Lions

Nelson Agholor, WR – New England Patriots

Jason Witten, TE – retired

Takkarist McKinley, LB – Cleveland Browns

Raekwon McMillan, LB – New England Patriots

Vic Beasley Jr., LB – free agent

Erik Harris, S – Atlanta Falcons

Predictions for Notable Raiders Players

Quarterback

Derek Carr led the Raiders to their first top-10 offensive season since 2016 when he and the Raiders went 12-3 in his 15 starts. Unfortunately in 2020, his team won just eight games. Carr set career-highs in the following categories last year:

4,103 passing yards
7.9 yards gained per passing attempt
11.8 yards gained per completion
101.4 quarterback rating
71.0 QBR

The three-time Pro Bowl quarterback is one of the better quarterbacks in terms of limiting interceptions, and the Raiders will need him to have yet another strong season in order for the team to even have a modicum of success in 2021. His over/under totals this season are 4,100.5 passing yards and 25.5 passing touchdowns. Las Vegas should be down in many games, so Carr has a chance of reaching both of those numbers. Keep in mind, he had 27 touchdowns last year.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs has a new running mate in the backfield in 2021. Jacobs, who has 2,215 rushing yards in his two NFL seasons, will be joined by former Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake, who thinks that he will be very much involved in the running game this season. In Drake’s five years in the league, he has yet to reach the 1,000-yard mark in rushing, but he has three seasons in which he has surpassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

Both Jacobs and Drake have a nose for the end zone. The incumbent has scored 19 total touchdowns in 28 games over two years while the new Raiders back has 18 scores in his 19 games the last two seasons. With Drake entering the huddle, Jacobs is expected to reach right around 1,000 yards in 17 games: his rushing total is being placed at 1,000.5 yards while Drake’s total is at 540.5 yards. Jacobs may not be utilized as much as he was in 2020 (273 rushes; 306 touches), but he should have another 1,000-yard season on the ground.

Wide Receiver

Carr will have a deep unit of receivers, as John Brown and Willie Snead IV are joining the fray in 2020. Last year, here is how the top wide receivers performed in Las Vegas:

Nelson Agholor (signed with NE): 48 receptions for 896 yards and eight touchdowns
Hunter Renfrow: 56 receptions for 656 yards and two touchdowns
Henry Ruggs III: 26 receptions for 452 yards and two touchdowns

The remaining receivers did not accumulate more than 200 receiving yards last year, and that list includes second-year receiver Bryan Edwards (193), Zay Jones (154), and Foster Moreau (140). Many expect Edwards to step up as the team’s third wide receiver, as the Raiders look to replace Agholor’s production.

Tight End

No matter who is at wide receiver for the Raiders, 2020 Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller will most likely be the team’s best pass-catcher in 2021. Here is how he fared last season, as he led the team in the following four categories (among players who qualified):

107 receptions (fourth in NFL)
1,196 receiving yards (10th)
Nine receiving touchdowns (10th)
11.2 yards per touch (seventh)

Was 2020 the peak for Waller or can he set new career-highs this upcoming season? He increased his touchdown total by six last year, so it will be difficult for him to top his scoring performance from 2020. His over/under totals are set at 1,050.5 receiving yards and 7.5 receiving touchdowns. Both of those are possible in an offense that could be coming from behind a lot this year.

At Wizard Race and Sports, we have NFL picks every week just for you. Make sure you head to this link to see all the Week 1 picks.

Raiders Predictions for the 2021 Season

2020 Regular Season Record: 8-8 (8-8 ATS); missed postseason

As the underdog in the AFC West this year, the Raiders and their fans should not have high expectations this season. Although Las Vegas finished with one of the league’s better offenses last year, that is not what NFL pundits are thinking for the 2021 Raiders. Since the Raiders lost Super Bowl XXXVII on January 26, 2003, the Raiders have made the postseason just once. However, a 30-year-old Carr could put the offense on his back again in 2021 and surpass the team’s win total of seven games. The oddsmakers have the Raiders at +1600 to have the worst record this season, which is not very likely this year. Maybe Las Vegas can pull off a couple of surprises this year and finish near or above .500 in 2021.

Wizard Race and Sports also has your 2021 season win totals and best futures to bet, so make sure to subscribe as soon as possible to get the best weekly and season picks.

Los Angeles Chargers

After Anthony Lynn failed to get to a .500 record in Justin Herbert’s strong rookie year, the Chargers have a fresh coaching staff for the 2021 season. New head coach Brandon Staley, who was the Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator in 2020, is looking to bring defensive success to the other Los Angeles franchise at SoFi Stadium, the location of this year’s Super Bowl. Last year, the Chargers’ defensive unit allowed the 10th-fewest yards, but the defense finished 23rd in points allowed. Joey Bosa and company are hoping that the unit can be more efficient with new defensive coordinator Ronaldo Hill, the former defensive backs coach for the divisional rival Denver Broncos.

The Chargers are +3000 to win the Super Bowl and +450 to win the AFC West. Unfortunately, due to Los Angeles being in the same division as the Super Bowl-favorite Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers are +133 to make the playoffs and -164 to miss the postseason. The AFC is stacked this year because Los Angeles has an impressive over/under win total of 9.5 games, but the team is not expected to make the postseason according to Vegas oddsmakers.

2021 Chargers Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick 13 – OT Rashawn Slater

Round 2, Pick 15 – CB Asante Samuel Jr.

Round 3, Pick 14 – WR Josh Palmer

Round 3, Pick 34 – TE Tre’ McKitty

Round 4, Pick 13 – LB Chris Rumph II

Round 5, Pick 15 – OT Brenden Jaimes

Round 6, Pick 1 – LB Nick Niemann

Round 6, Pick 14 – RB Larry Rountree III

Round 7, Pick 13 – DB Mark Webb

Notable Other Players Added and Re-Signed by the Chargers

Jared Cook, TE

Corey Linsley, C

Matt Feiler, G

Michael Davis, CB

Oday Aboushi, G

Notable Chargers in New Places

Tyrod Taylor, QB – Houston Texans

Kalen Ballage, RB – Pittsburgh Steelers

Hunter Henry, TE – New England Patriots

Sam Tevi, OT – Indianapolis Colts

Forrest Lamp, G – Buffalo Bills

Melvin Ingram III, DE – Pittsburgh Steelers

Isaac Rochell, DE – Indianapolis Colts

Denzel Perryman, LB – Carolina Panthers

Rayshawn Jenkins, S – Jacksonville Jaguars

Predictions for Notable Chargers Players

Quarterback

Justin Herbert (+2000 to win the MVP Award), the sixth selection in the 2020 draft, finished in the top 10 in passing yards, touchdowns, completions, and game-winning drives last year. His second year should be an impressive one after he led the Chargers offense to be one of the best passing attacks in the league last year. He will look to build upon 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns this year. Also, if he can get single-digit interceptions in 2021 after a 10-interception year last season, that will make for a successful year.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler (+3500 to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award) continues to be the bell cow for the Chargers after accumulating 933 yards from scrimmage in 10 games last year. Los Angeles hopes that he can stay healthy in the lengthy 2021 season because he is such a dominant running back. In 2019, he ranked in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage, yards per touch, touchdowns, and receptions. Josh Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and sixth-rounder Larry Rountree III will be backing up Ekeler.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen, a four-time Pro Bowler, and Mike Williams are back for another season, while Jalen Guyton and third-rounder Josh Palmer will be looking to rise into the upper echelon of Chargers receivers. Allen just missed out on his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season through the air last year, but he did bring in eight receiving touchdowns, which matched his career-high. His over/under totals this year are 1,050.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving touchdowns. A strong connection between Allen and Herbert should allow for the over in receiving yards, but the over with touchdowns may be difficult.

Tight End

Hunter Henry has exited Los Angeles and he has gone to the East Coast, while Jared Cook made his way from New Orleans to SoFi Stadium. Henry, a 26-year-old, made the 2016 All-Rookie Team, but he has yet to make a Pro Bowl. Cook has been to two Pro Bowls (2018 and 2019) in 12 NFL seasons. Cook’s career receptions and receiving yards both rank in the top 30 among active pass-catchers, so he should be reliable for Herbert. The new Chargers tight end enters 2021 with over/under totals of 525.5 receiving yards and 4.5 touchdowns.

At Wizard Race and Sports, we have NFL picks every week just for you. Make sure you head to this link to see all the Week 1 picks.

Chargers Predictions for the 2021 Season

2020 Regular Season Record: 7-9 (9-7 ATS); missed postseason

Similar to the Raiders, the Chargers were relatively average in 2020, but Los Angeles finished the previous season with a four-game winning streak. Anthony Lynn’s team struggled early in the season and had a four-game losing streak prior to the Week 6 bye week. Herbert and the Chargers, who are expected to win quite a few games this year, cannot have a slow start in 2021. In terms of yardage, both the offensive and defensive units for the Chargers performed well. However, it did not turn into points. This year’s edition of the team has a decent chance at succeeding. There is some pressure on Herbert and company this season, so we will see if they are up to it.

Wizard Race and Sports also has your 2021 season win totals and best futures to bet, so make sure to subscribe as soon as possible to get the best weekly and season picks.

Denver Broncos

Like the Chargers, the Broncos were 9-7 against the spread in 2020. However, Denver finished the season in the basement of the AFC West. The upcoming season is expected to be a little different, as the Raiders are projected to finish fourth while oddsmakers think the Broncos will be third behind Kansas City and Los Angeles. Head coach Vic Fangio, offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell return for 2021, but Drew Lock may not be the starter for 13 games like he was in 2020. Teddy Bridgewater, who made the 2015 Pro Bowl, is with his third franchise in the last three years, and he could overtake Lock as the starter.

The Broncos are +450 to win the division and their win total is set at 8.5 wins. They are +154 to make the playoffs and -190 to miss the postseason, so a breakout third season for Lock could prove oddsmakers wrong. Unfortunately, entering 2021, the Broncos (+4500 to win the Super Bowl) have the fourth-best quarterback in the division at best, so it may be a difficult year for fans at Mile High.

2021 Broncos Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick 9 – CB Pat Surtain II

Round 2, Pick 3 – RB Javonte Williams

Round 3, Pick 35 – G Quinn Meinerz

Round 3, Pick 42 – LB Baron Browning

Round 5, Pick 8 – S Caden Sterns

Round 5, Pick 20 – S Jamar Johnson

Round 6, Pick 35 – WR Seth Williams

Round 7, Pick 9 – CB Kary Vincent Jr.

Round 7, Pick 11 – DE Jonathon Cooper

Notable Other Players Added and Re-Signed by the Broncos

Teddy Bridgewater, QB

Bobby Massie, OT

Cameron Fleming, OT

Shelby Harris, DE

Ronald Darby, CB

Justin Simmons, S

Kareem Jackson, S

Notable Broncos in New Places

Phillip Lindsay, RB – Houston Texans

Nick Vannett, TE – New Orleans Saints

Elijah Wilkinson, OT – Chicago Bears

Predictions for Notable Broncos Players

Quarterback

Lock was 4-9 with 16 passing touchdowns and three rushing scores as a starter in 2020, and his 15 interceptions led the NFL. Last year, Bridgewater went 4-11 with 15 passing touchdowns and five rushing scores. He had 11 interceptions, which finished in the top 10 in the league. In April, Denver sent a 2021 sixth-round draft pick to Carolina to bring in the 28-year-old quarterback. The former Minnesota Viking and New Orleans Saint had his best completion percentage (69.1) last year, and it ranked fifth in the league. Lock’s completion percentage was 57.3 percent in 2020, so if Lock is not looking accurate early in 2021, it may be the Bridgewater show this year.

Running Back

Near the beginning of the second round of the 2021 draft, the Broncos selected running back Javonte Williams out of North Carolina. He will back up Melvin Gordon III (+10000 to lead the league in rushing), who carried the ball 215 times last year for 986 yards and nine touchdowns. Williams plans on filling the role of Phillip Lindsay, who backed up Gordon in 2020. Lindsay went for 118 rushes, 502 yards, and a touchdown before heading to Houston. If the quarterback situation is uncertain for the Broncos, it may be difficult for Gordon to have his first 1,000-yard season on the ground since he was with the Chargers in 2017.

Wide Receiver

Can Jerry Jeudy be a top receiver in 2020 after accumulating 856 yards and three touchdowns on 52 receptions last year? He was targeted 113 times, so Denver quarterbacks were looking his way last year, but it did not lead to a 1,000-yard rookie season. Maybe his second year in the NFL will be more prosperous, as the Broncos select either Lock or Bridgewater to be the man under center.

Tim Patrick had just one fewer reception than Jeudy last season, as he led the team with six receiving touchdowns. Jeudy had more yards per reception though, as he finished with the seventh-highest total (16.5 yards per reception) in the NFL in 2020. Improved receiving production for the Broncos in 2021 could be a huge part of getting the Broncos’ offensive unit out of the basement of the league.

Tight End

Noah Fant returns to the team for his third NFL season after leading the Broncos with 62 catches last year. He also had three touchdowns for the second consecutive year. The 2019 All-Rookie Team selection improved his receptions, yards, and catch percentage in 2020, but 673 yards should not be the ceiling for him. His over/under totals for this year are 690.5 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If he hits the overs, then it will be a successful season for the young tight end.

At Wizard Race and Sports, we have NFL picks every week just for you. Make sure you head to this link to see all the picks.

Broncos Predictions for the 2021 Season

2020 Regular Season Record: 5-11 (7-9 ATS); missed postseason

The Broncos finished in the bottom 10 in both points scored and points against last year, but they added the public favorite for the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award: Patrick Surtain II (+1200). He is ranked fifth in terms of odds, but the son of three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain could make a large impact on the 2021 season in Denver. Takeaways will be important for the Broncos this upcoming season after they had 32 giveaways and just 16 takeaways in 2020. Denver may be able to start the season strongly against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, so maybe a great early-season start can lead to a surprisingly good season for the Broncos.

Wizard Race and Sports also has your 2021 season win totals and best futures to bet, so make sure to subscribe as soon as possible to get the best weekly and season picks.