2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview: A Horse-by-Horse Analysis

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The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic post time is 5:41 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 2, at Del Mar Racetrack in San Diego. This year the Breeders’ Cup Classic will feature 14 horses competing on a 1 1/4 mile dirt track for a $7 million purse.

Get ready for the 41st annual Breeders’ Cup with the Wizard’s analysis.

Who are the contenders and pretenders?

All horses running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year are listed in post-position order, including their jockey and morning-line odds.

Post 1: Forever Young, Sakai, 6-1

Top class Japanese invader has won six of his seven starts with his lone defeat coming in this year’s Kentucky Derby by just a head. His Achilles’ heel is his slow starts, but if he’s able to break with the field from the rail, he will be closing with a flourish late. Contender.

Post 2: Highland Falls, Saez, 20-1

This gem of consistency exits a career-best race, winning a Grade 1 stake at this distance at Saratoga. Has good tactical speed and a top trainer in Brad Cox, but faces huge odds. Pretender.

Post 3: City of Troy, Moore, 5-2

If the Breeders’ Cup Classic were run on the turf, he would be a lock to win. But it’s on dirt, a surface he’s yet to run on. Winner of six of his seven starts, he’s proven to be top-shelf for world class horseman Aidan O’Brien. Worked recently in company over a dirt surface overseas to simulate Saturday’s surface at Del Mar and appeared to handle it well. O’Brien has yet to win the Classic in 17 attempts, but several have run very well in defeat. Maybe this is the year he earns his first victory. Contender.

Post 4: Mixto, Frey, 30-1

Upset the field in the weak renewal of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic over this course and distance last time out. Overmatched here. Pretender.

5. Senor Buscador, Rosario, 30-1

Winless in four starts at this distance and not in good form. Pretender.

Post 6: Derma Sotogake, Lemaire, 20-1

Has but a single win in seven tries over 2023-24 but managed a fast closing second to White Abarrio in the 2023 edition of the Classic at Santa Anita. He’ll be equipped with blinkers, and he posted a stellar workout over the Del Mar surface. Contender.

Post 7: Ushba Tesoro, Kawada, 12-1

This 7-year-old warrior always runs his race and is always competitive in Grade 1 company. He finished well in fifth from too far back in this race in 2023. Contender.

Post 8: Pyrenees, Hernandez, 30-1

Beaten easily by rival Highland Falls last out. Does not class up with these. Pretender.

Post 9: Fierceness, Velazquez, 3-1

Fierceness is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. He’s demonstrated the ability to crush rivals. In other races, he has flat-out disappointed. His previous two efforts have been stellar, but he faces seasoned elders in the Classic. Will need his absolute best here. Outside post helps. Contender.

Post 10: Tapit Trice, Irad Ortiz, 30-1

Had to go all out to defeat just three rivals last time out. Overmatched. Pretender.

Post 11: Sierra Leone, Prat, 12-1

Always runs his race, always drifts in and sometimes into rivals, always promises but has yet to deliver. If one day he can put it all together, he could win a race like this. Could this be the day? Great rider on. Pretender.

Post 12: Arthur’s Ride, Alvarado, 15-1

Gray speedster will be sent right out to the lead but is expected to tire in the stretch. Only quality win was in the Whitney in the mud. Far tougher task on a dry track Saturday facing far tougher. Pretender.

Post 13: Newgate, Dettori, 20-1

Clearly overmatched breaking from a tough outside post. Blinkers go on because he tends to lose focus in the stretch. Pretender.

Post 14: Next, Machado, 8-1

Looks to win his eighth race in a row after several blowout victories, but he’s been feasting on far weaker opposition at marathon distances. Cuts back and meets far tougher foes here. Will be stalking Arthur’s Ride early. He must wear that one down and hold off the closers. Not impossible for a 6-year-old who has had a magical year. Contender.


Check out the Wizard’s in depth analysis on all selections and wagering strategies for the Breeders’ Cup for Friday & Saturday.

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