The 43rd Breeders’ Cup World Championships run October 30-31 at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, with the $7 million Classic on Saturday, October 31. The Wizard has gone through the field in post position order and sorted every runner into Contender or Pretender. Pace is the key. Knightsbridge, Magnitude, and Napoleon Solo all want the front end, which should set the race up for the horses that can sit just off it and finish.
T O PASSWORD (30-1)
T O Password was cross-entered in the Dirt Mile, where he looked better suited than in this Classic. He managed a fifth-place finish after a poor start in the 2024 Kentucky Derby at 48-1. He is unplaced in two Graded Stakes in Japan. In his latest, T O Password raced fifth in a field of 16 until entering the stretch going 8.5 furlongs over a track labeled “good.” He angled out with dead aim, only to be outkicked late by the winner while galloping out well. In 2025, T O Password won at 9-furlongs and 1 3/16 miles. It is not impossible for him to make his presence felt late. (CONTENDER)
SOVEREIGNTY (5-2)
Sovereignty earned 2025 Horse of the Year for winning the G1 Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers Stakes. He earned controversy when his connections opted to pass on the G1 Preakness Stakes, forgoing an attempt at a potential Triple Crown. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott chose the G1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs for Sovereignty’s four-year-old return. In a field of six over a sloppy track, Sovereignty raced wide, moved up through the far turn, and loomed with dead aim but flattened out from the effort. The effort was “better than it looks,” as race dynamics favored front-running rival Magnitude, who laid down constant fractions while on an unpressured lead over the speed-favoring main track.
Returning to his home track at Saratoga, Sovereignty crushed a decent field in the G1 Whitney, easily defeating top filly Nitrogen and rival Magnitude, who stumbled at the start and lost his race there. Sovereignty has looked sharp in his morning moves. He has proven to be a strong-finishing 10-furlong horse but has suffered persistent foot issues, which is why he has been training with bar shoes. (CONTENDER)
GOLDEN TEMPO (5-1)
Golden Tempo has been well managed by trainer Cherie DeVaux. Winning the G1 Belmont next out, off five weeks’ rest, proved the 23-1 Kentucky Derby victory was not a fluke. Persistent foot issues forced connections to pass on the G2 Jim Dandy and go straight to the G1 Travers.
His third-place Travers finish was much better than it looks on paper. One might argue little went right for Golden Tempo. First, he was kept well off the rail early on. Second, jockey Jose Ortiz was forced to move to the rail to pass a tiring Ocelli, anticipating room farther down the backstretch to angle out. But brother Irad and Renegade kept them inside. Golden Tempo was once again prevented from tipping out near the top of the stretch. He kept on gamely along the inside while lacking room late behind the tiring Napoleon Solo. The pace was honest and contested, which Golden Tempo will certainly see again on Cup Day. The Wizard believes Golden Tempo prefers, perhaps needs, to be running outside horses to run on freely and deliver his best late run. Post position matters less for late runners going 10 furlongs; pace dynamics and trip eventually determine the outcome. (CONTENDER)
THE PUMA (10-1)
The Puma finished powerfully to take the G2 Tampa Bay Derby off two subtly tough trips. He repeated that effort, only to be nailed at the wire by a determined Commandment in the G1 Florida Derby, a race that became a negative “key” race producing no next-out winners. He was wide while drifting in late over a sloppy track in the G1 Haskell, returning July 18 from the March 28 Florida Derby. He improved some to finish fourth in the G1 Travers.
Trainer Gustavo Delgado added blinkers for the G1 Pennsylvania Derby, where he ran down rival Further Ado late. The Wizard believes him to be somewhat competitive but a cut below the best of his generation. He does not break well, races near the rear early on, then makes a run. His last was his best; a repeat will likely not be enough. The Classic distance also appears to be farther than he wants to travel. (PRETENDER)
FOREVER YOUNG (2-1)
Defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Forever Young is a proven globe-trotting gladiator making his first start at Keeneland. This five-year-old has earned over $32 million from a 16-12-1-3 record while racing in five countries. On September 18, Forever Young returned from a March layoff to dominate three lesser rivals in an extremely weak edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He stalked leader Phileas Fogg, drew even into the far turn, then spurted clear while drifting out in the lane. While unimpressive, Forever Young did enough to set him up for an improved effort in this year’s Classic, if not a top one. His tractability will have him placed forward, behind what projects to be a lively, crowded, and contested pace. Forever Young should be sitting in the catbird seat, getting first run on weakening pace rivals. (CONTENDER)
MAGNITUDE (6-1)
Historically, Magnitude delivers his best effort in his first or second start after a layoff. That will be the case here, as he seeks to rebound from the poor start last out in the G1 Whitney, losing to rival Sovereignty. Magnitude is a pace-setting or pace-pressing type. His lone win at the distance came easily in the G1 Stephen Foster when “loose on the lead” over a speed-favoring, sloppy track. To win this race, Magnitude must put away other quality speeds, then hold off talented fast closers. (PRETENDER)
KNIGHTSBRIDGE (9-2)
Knightsbridge is a front-running speedster whom trainer Bill Mott kept at 7 and 8 furlongs until his 11th start. He was asked to go two turns around 9 furlongs for the first time July 18, 2026, in the G3 Monmouth Cup. That day he crushed four overmatched rivals while loose on the lead. Off that effort, Mott opted for the 10-furlong Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Heavily bet, Knightsbridge skipped to the lead from post 11, vied with Full Serrano on the early pace, put that one away, and drew clear. Knightsbridge will most certainly be part of the early pace. He’s sharp, enters this Breeders’ Cup in the third race of a new form cycle, and has a win at the distance. The crowded pace scenario is a concern, as is the fact that the late fractions in the Pacific Classic were soft. It is no surprise that his connections opted for the BC Classic over the mile. (CONTENDER)
NAPOLEON SOLO (15-1)
This $40,000 purchase has earned $2 million for his connections in a 7-3-2-0 career. Not bad! His G1 Preakness win, followed by his pace-setting, narrow loss in the shadow of the wire to Leading Change in the G1 Travers Stakes, proves 10 furlongs is not a major obstacle. That day, Hall of Famer John Velazquez used all his skills to ride the front end and give Napoleon Solo his best chance to win. The fractions were both contested and constant. That means the two vying were under pressure and still setting fast, constant fractions throughout the race. In subduing his pace rival and keeping on gamely, Napoleon Solo proved he can take punches, which might give him an edge in here over other pace horses. It’s a daunting task to battle on the front and have enough in the tank to hold off the classy, speedy late runners. His outside draw makes it tough for his rider to avoid a wide trip chasing quick fractions. (PRETENDER)