Michael Kipness, AKA “The Wizard”, a professional handicapper since 1986, analyzes the 8-horse field for Saturday’s 157th Belmont, designating each horse as a Contender or a Pretender.
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All 8 horses are listed in post-position order, including their rider and morning-line odds.
Post 1: HILL ROAD, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
Deep closer exits a career best race winning the Peter Pan May 10. Overcame a troubled start to prevail in the shadow of the wire. Takes a steep step up in class in the Belmont. Unlikely to out finish the top 4 contenders. PRETENDER.
Post 2: SOVEREIGNTY, Alvarado, 2-1
Trainer Bill Mott has liked what he’s seen from Sovereignty each day since his 1 1/2-length win over Journalism in the Kentucky Derby. Mott and Sovereignty’s owner, Godolphin Racing, opted to skip the Preakness because, quite simply, they were never that interested in running the horse back in two weeks.
“If there ever would have been a horse you could have tried the Triple Crown with, he might have been it – big, sturdy, came out good,” Mott said. “There was no reason physically why we couldn’t have run in the Preakness. We had no excuse other than we didn’t feel like it. The word Preakness I don’t think ever came up into our conversation. When you have a horse like that, you talk about a lot of things. Preakness was not one of them.”
Mott said the Belmont Stakes, at Saratoga and at 1 1/4 miles for a second consecutive year, was attractive to him, as is the $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 23, run at the same track and distance. Mott has won 5,505 races in his career – seventh all-time. The Travers ranks at the top of the list of races Mott has yet to win.
This Hall of Fame trainer and owner Godolphin Racing developed a long-term plan to get Sovereignty from that Kentucky Derby win to the Belmont, Travers and, probably, one prep leading to the Breeders Cup Classic.
Sovereignty’s Derby win was impressive. Despite minor bumping and traffic after the break, jockey Junior Alvarado negotiated the 18-horse field near perfectly. He managed to place Sovereignty in a clear spot along the inside, saving ground through the early portions of the race. From there he angled out for clear running, had dead aim and finished full of run for the win. Additionally, the strong, contested pace of that race played to Sovereignty’s running style strengths. We now know 5-weeks rest and a 10-furlong Belmont run at Saratoga was always the plan…in the same way that two starts at Gulfstream, the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, were the plan for the first weekend in May.
Closers and off-the-pace runners like Sovereignty need either a class advantage, a strong pace, like that which played out in the Derby, or both. A 19-20 horse Derby field often presents a strong, contested pace. The field size and projected pace for this Belmont field travelling the 10-furlongs around Saratoga’s speed favoring oval projects to be significantly different.
Sovereignty is fresh, working smartly over the Oklahoma training track, and looks poised to deliver another strong effort for these top connections. This colt will be running hard and fast at the leaders late. CONTENDER
Post 3: RODRIGUEZ, Smith, 6-1
A Triple Crown season without a strong early speedster from Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert is like Halloween without pumpkins or Christmas without elves…extremely unusual.
Baffert hired Mike Smith for the ride in the Wood Memorial with instructions to go from the gate. Smith skipped off to the lead immediately after the start, set a modest pace throughout, then extended his lead over a closing Grande to crush 9 overmatched rivals.
Pointed to the Kentucky Derby, Rodriguez was a late scratch suffering a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise. The Preakness became the plan, but Baffert called an audible, giving Rodriguez more time in the barn to recover, substituting second stringer Goal Oriented.
With 9 weeks to rest and recover from the effort in the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez arrived at Saratoga fresh, sporting two sharp works in May, and the foot bruise, apparently, well behind him. This Belmont field was decidedly devoid of early speed, until the late entry of owner Bobby Flay and Pletcher trainee Crudo. Crudo will get his class test early on if jockey John Velazquez is on a mission like his ride aboard Cornucopian in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Both speedsters melted from a suicidal pace.
Rodriguez is the class speed of this Belmont field. In my mind, Mike Smith will ride Rodriguez as if Crudo is not even in the race. These two might contend through the early portion of the race. However, Smith and Baffert know that a strong, contested, even an honest pace, surely favors favorites Journalism and Sovereignty. Additionally, I expect Baeza and Journalism to be sitting third and fourth behind these two pace setters. Control of the pace of this race and its outcome is in Mike Smith’s hands. CONTENDER
Post 4: UNCAGED, Saez, 30-1
Beaten 10 lengths by Hill Road in the Peter Pan. Totally overmatched here. PRETENDER.
Post 5: CRUDO, Velazquez, 15-1
Could be on the lead early if that’s the connection’s intention. More likely to chase Rodriguez. Either way, he will be done on the far turn. PRETENDER
Post 6: BAEZA, Prat, 4-1
Baeza stamped himself as a Triple Crown contender with his narrow defeat to Journalism in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. As a result of a lack of Derby points, he was an also eligible, but drew into the field late, saddled with post 19.
From the break, Baeza was farther back than his usual running style, remained wide early on while in the clear, angled in to save ground while in and among rivals, angled out and finished full of run too late. Given all his obstacles, the post, the quirky Churchill sloppy track, the large field, racing in and among rivals, Baeza delivered a strong effort, falling a short neck from nailing Journalism for the place before galloping out extremely well past the top 2 finishers.
Baeza arrives at Saratoga fresh off five-weeks rest. That which compromised him in the Derby will not compromise him in the Belmont. In the Derby he demonstrated both the willingness and ability to adapt to a change in tactics and race well from off the pace. Today he will race comfortably among the front half of this field. I see this improving colt tracking from just off the pace and will likely have aim on the leaders at the top of the lane. Can he reel in the speed? Can he outkick rival Journalism? Can he hold off Sovereignty? It must be noted that his trainer John Sheriffs is not only a superb horseman, but I would even consider him a “horse whisperer”. Based in California, John Shirreffs, a Vietnam War vet, began training Thoroughbreds in 1978. He has won several marquee stakes races, with his most important coming in the 2005 Kentucky Derby when Giacomo scored a huge upset. In 2007, another Shirreffs trained horse scored a major upset when Tiago, a half-brother to Giacomo, won the Santa Anita Derby. He is also the trainer of champion filly Zenyatta, who was beaten only once in twenty career starts, and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2009. CONTENDER
Post 7: JOURNALISM, Rispoli, 8-5
Journalism returns to contest the Belmont Stakes off three weeks’ rest following his troubled but decisive score over 8 rivals in the May 17 running of the 2025 Preakness Stakes. He carries a 6-5-1-0 record since a third-place finish on debut sprinting at 6-furlongs. This is a talented colt who has demonstrated grit, determination and a will to fight to the wire. He has done everything right for trainer Michael McCarthy, winning twice despite finding compromising trouble in both the Santa Anita Derby and, most recently, the Preakness Stakes. Jockey Umberto Rispoli has made two mid-race decisions which, despite the positive outcomes, have been called into question.
By way of review, Journalism’s efforts during the running of the 2025 Kentucky Derby proved himself a worthy favorite. Like many drawn among the inside half of the field, Journalism bumped with rival Burnham Square at the start, then found himself shuffled back and in mild traffic when rail horse Citizen Bull veered out in front of and into the paths of rivals to his immediate outside. Jockey Umberto Rispoli gathered Journalism up and veered in for running room in the clear along the inside. From there, Journalism enjoyed a nearly perfect trip inside before Rispoli angled him off the inside late down the backside, gaining clear running room outside rivals. Journalism gamely picked off rivals into the far turn, emerging in the clear at the top of the stretch with dead aim on tiring leaders. Journalism would lead for a moment, keep on gamely but was unable to hold off the hard closing Sovereignty.
Derby AE Baeza, drawing into the race and finishing a strong third, stamped the Santa Anita Derby as the best Derby prep. You recall in the Santa Anita Derby Rispoli had Journalism pinned in traffic along the inside behind a tiring leader and rival Barnes. Journalism showed tractability when forced to drop back, angle out and, with good energy and a steady grind, run down perfect trip rival Baeza.
Victory for Journalism in the Preakness looked doubtful when jockey Rispoli opted to remain inside rather than angle out from behind rivals and take the overland route. Rispoli’s move into a crevice of space between rivals and the ensuing bumping deserved a look from the stewards. More impressive was Journalism’s fast finish when clear to reel in a tiring but game leader in Gosger.
On paper, Journalism is most certainly a win contender, if not a most likely winner, in this 10-furlong Saratoga-based version of the Belmont Stakes. But there are questions which must be asked of Journalism as the probable post time favorite: Will a win require a repeat of his recent Derby and Preakness efforts? Can he deliver another win making his 5th start in just over 3 months and facing fresh rivals? CONTENDER
Post 8: HEART OF HONOR, Osborne, 30-1
Finished a non-threatening 5th in the Preakness. Gate issues usually account for his slow starts. Maybe he rounds out the superfecta but is clearly not a win threat. PRETENDER