Track: Fast
Track Bias: None
Pace: Honest
Looking into the Wizard’s Kentucky Derby Crystal Ball
Sovereignty (3-1 odds) was an impressive winner closing from last of 6 to get up in the shadow of the wire to win by a neck under a skillful and beautifully timed ride by Junior Alvarado and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Owned by the powerhouse world class breeder Godolphin, Sovereignty was taken back to last and right over to the rail entering the backstretch. When Alvarado asked him to commence his run on the far turn when angled out wide, he immediately responded. In mid-stretch, second place finisher River Thames put away the pacesetter Neoequos and looked home free inside the eighth pole. With a sudden burst of acceleration, Sovereignty nailed him. The betting favorite at 9-5 odds was Burnham Square who was scrubbed on approaching the top of the stretch and was unable to match strides with the winner at any point through the lane in a disappointing effort.
Sovereignty will likely make his next start in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday March 29. The extra 1/16thof a mile should only enhance his chances, as he’s a long striding big strong colt with more upside. He had shown steady improvement as a 2-year-old, capped off with a decisive 5 length win as a maiden in the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs on October 27 stretching out to 2 turns at the same distance as the Fountain of Youth.
Sovereignty hails from the world class sire Into Mischief, out of the dam Crowned, who was a $1.2 million yearling who never made it to the races. The mother of Crowned was Mushka, who was sired by the long-winded Empire Maker, whose father was Seeking the Gold, who also relished a distance of ground. Mushka herself won 6 races from 19 starts ($1.1 million in earnings). She won on dirt, on turf as well as over synthetic surfaces, highlighted by a win as a 2-year-old in the 2007 Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct and at 4 years of age winning both the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.
There’s no doubt that Sovereignty is a colt to keep close tabs on for the Kentucky Derby. His steady improvement, especially from 2 to 3 years of age, his physical appearance and stride, combined with a quality distance pedigree and topflight connections, are all strong attributes in his corner. What Sovereignty will have to show me going forward, is his agility in a bigger field to navigate his way through traffic. He will no doubt get a lively pace in upcoming races to help set up his late run, so there are plenty of reasons to consider him as a major Kentucky Derby contender.