Track: Fast
Track Bias: None
Pace: Honest
Looking into the Wizard’s Kentucky Derby Crystal Ball
Owen Almighty (5-2) Was the Wizard’s Pick of the Day around the country which includes my write up on him and my wagering strategies found at the bottom of this race write up. He was third choice on the tote board.
Owen Almighty took full advantage breaking from the rail with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, setting the pace right from the start. Under a firm hold, Ortiz expertly rationed out his early speed, spurting clear to a 4-length lead turning for home while keeping well off the rail. The improving 3-year-old was able to maintain a clear advantage through the stretch over his 6 rivals under vigorous urging to the wire. Owen Almighty was clearly the best. The question moving forward in the Kentucky Derby will be his ability to stretch out to 1 ¼ miles and if he’s able to respond as well to rating tactics or get cooked on the front end in a race in a 20-horse field which will likely feature other speeds and a lively pace. He’s clearly bred to be effective up to 1 1/8 miles, so there’s a lot to prove if he’s truly a top tier Kentucky Derby win candidate.
CHANCER MCPATRICK (2-1) was making his first start since finishing a disappointing 6th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Adding blinkers for the first, he showed a lot more early speed than in his previous 3 starts which were all come from behind victories. Jockey Flavian Prat took up a cozy position along the rail racing in 3rd position approaching the top of the stretch. He was angled off the inside to pursue the winner but had to settle for 2nd while clearly best of the rest. He certainly could move forward in his next start which will likely come in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. I question his ability to be as effective at the Kentucky Derby distance, but he should answer this question in 4 weeks.
HILL ROAD (9-2) Raced towards the rear of the field while saving ground every step of the way. He was able to pick up tired horses in the stretch to finish a well beaten 3rd. He still has some upside and a strong distance pedigree, so I would watch closely how he does in his next start, which could come in either the Bluegrass or the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
PATCH ADAMS (9-5 betting Favorite) Was way over-bet breaking from a tough outside post. He was wide most of the way while offering no kick whatsoever in the stretch drive. He should improve in a softer spot but clearly proved he cannot be considered a Kentucky Derby win contender and is likely not going to even run in the race.
THE WIZARD’S WAGERING STRATEGY ON THE PICK OF THE DAY
* Win bet on (1) OWEN ALMIGHTY ($7.80 to win)
* Exactas 1 over 2, reverse for 1/2 as much ($24.20 Exacta)
* Trifecta 1 over 2-3-7 over ALL = $15 for a $1 wager ($34.40 Trifecta)
* Trifecta 1 over 2-3-7 over 2-3-7 = $6 for a $1 wager ($34.40 Trifecta)
* Trifecta 2 over 1 over ALL = $5 for a $1 wager (- $5.00)
* Trifecta 2-3-7 over 1 over 2-3-7 = $9 for a $1.50 wager (-$9.00)
PACE SCENARIO
Owen Almighty will be hustled to the lead breaking from the rail with Brodeur and Patch Adams in close pursuit. The fractions will be lively.
WRITE UP ON TOP SELECTION OWEN ALMIGHTY
Owen Almighty looks primed to run a big race in the Tampa Bay Derby as the main competition could be using this race as a springboard for the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in early April. He’s never had a bad race in 5 starts, winning 2 races and finishing second twice, running solid races in defeat. He would have had 3 wins, but was Dq’d in the Pasco 2 starts back. Last time out in the Sam Davis adding blinkers for the first time, he dueled from start to finish with the very game winner John Hancock, while hung outside that rival the entire trip. As I was watching the race develop, I never thought that these 2 rivals would run 1-2 around the track because of how fast the fractions were. Today Owen Almighty draws the rail, which only enhances his chances. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. can decide on the break whether he wants the lead or to sit right off of it while saving valuable ground.